Year 12 statistics class weather forecast for an upcoming PA event in VOI for the month of october.

During the last few weeks the year 12 statistics class have been involved in deep research concerning weather forecasting, this gave us a deeper understanding into our current topic of conditional probability, we first started by compiling the region's weather for the last few months then using different statistical techniques and formulas guided by our team leader Carson kaptoge we were able to predict the weather forecast for our upcoming presidential award certification hike in Voi. The following were some key points from our research:

Cloud cover categories in Voi

By using data we found from weather spark we can see that

Overcast: 80% chance of rain

Mostly Cloudy: 50% chance of rain

Partly Cloudy: 20% chance of rain

Mostly Clear: 5% chance of rain

Clear: 1% chance of rain

Assuming that there is a higher chance of rain from this data we can use probability to find the chance of rain during our stay in Voi.

Probability of rain

=(0.40×0.80)+(0.30×0.50)+(0.20×0.20)+(0.05×0.05)+(0.05×0.01)

0.32+0.15+0.04+0.0025+0.0005 ≈0.5125 or 51.25%

We recommend that throughout the month cloud cover starts increasing again, with a higher chance of rain by late October.

● Recommendations:

○ Clothing: Light layers with breathable fabrics.

○ Rain Protection: A rain jacket or poncho, especially for late October when rain becomes more likely. An umbrella is a good idea.

○ Footwear: Waterproof shoes or sturdy sandal

Authors Aaron & Amina.